Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1

Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s

(DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio

Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered

away a chest brimming with political capital.

Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for

two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions

of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa

Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s

provision of some ¥1.26 billion to him over years.

Following Hatoyama’s resignation, Minister of Finance Naoto Kan

was elected as the new Prime Minister, the fifth in four years.

At his inaugural press conference Kan proposed a comprehensive

reconstruction of the economy, public finance, and social security

as his priority, in addition to reforming public administration, and

conducting responsible diplomatic and defence policy.

Fisher Capital Management Report- Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1: The biggest question surrounding the once-popular new government

is whether Kan can really turn over a new leaf for the DPJ. In his

first policy speech to the Diet as prime minister, Kan sought to set

his administration apart from the previous one by vowing to build

“a strong economy, strong finances and strong social welfare”.

Kan stressed the need to jolt Japan out of its currently weak state,

which he attributed to “anaemic economic growth, ballooning

public debt and dwindling public trust in the viability of Japan's

social security system”.

Observers and practitioners believe that the government is unlikely

to announce any significant new policy initiatives, as Kan was

already one of the main architects behind the previous

administration’s economic policy, although some changes have just

been announced in the DPJ election manifesto for the Upper House

election. For instance it drops the promise of doubling monthly

child allowances to ¥26000 next year.

“I hope to carry over the torch of rebuilding Japan passed on to

me by Hatoyama”, he observed at a press conference after his

election. Alan Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Japan,

says that “although Kan’s initial speech did include some new

elements, the main message was continuity with Hatoyama’s

economic policies. Investors are likely to welcome the innovations,

but to remain sceptical of the overall philosophy”.

However, economists believe Kan will face a mountain of challenges

both at home and abroad in the near future. First, he needs to

rebuild that political capital ahead of the upper house elections.

Public support for the DPJ has recovered sharply after his

appointment suggesting that voters have, for now, forgiven the

ruling Democrats for the previous leaders’ policy mistakes.

But it remains to be seen whether the initial popularity of the Kan

administration will translate into a strong performance, and whether

Kan will ultimately be given a strong enough mandate to push

through difficult policy decisions.

Major newspaper polls give Prime Minister approval ratings of

between 60 and 70 percent; but such ratings can be very fickle.

The election will be an uphill battle for the DPJ. The DPJ is without

one of its coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party who left

the ruling camp over Hatoyama’s failure to remove the US base

from Okinawa, as demanded by its leader, Mizuho Fukushima.

The two parties that remain, the DPJ and the People’s New Party,

hold 122 of the upper house’s 242 seats, the slimmest majority

possible. Should the coalition lose that majority in the coming

election, it would mean a split Diet — its majority would only

remain in the lower house. And that would make passing bills

extremely difficult.

Fisher Capital Management Report- Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1: Kan will have plenty on the economic front too. In terms of fiscal

policy, as a former Finance minister he has turned into a fiscal

conservative, having been a champion of funnelling revenue from

higher taxes toward government spending in order to achieve

economic growth. “Economic growth, fiscal reconstruction and

social welfare reform will be achieved together”, he told reporters.

Fisher Capital Management News: Equity Markets

Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging markets, Are stable over the past month. There had been expectations that the Fed might introduce further quantitative easing measures at its recent OMC meeting, and this provided some support for the markets in the early part of the month; but it made only very modest.

Government Bond Markets: The major government bond markets have made further significant gains over the past month, despite the funding pressures resulting form huge fiscal deficits, and the renewed concerns about debt defaults.

Short-term interest rates have remained low, and monetary policy has been supportive; but it has been the enhanced “safe haven” status of these markets that has provided most of the momentum, as investors have sought “shelter from the current storm”. However the moves have surprised most commentators, and this has led to warnings about “bond bubbles” that will not be sustained.

Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has deteriorated. Signs of slowdown in the Chinese economy, have produced a much more cautious view of prospects for the rest of this year and in 2011; and there have been renewed fears about banking problems in Europe, and the likelihood of sovereign debt defaults. There have also been further indications of the conflicting views of central banks about the most appropriate response to the current problems.

Currency Markets: Uncertainty has been the main feature of the currency markets over the past month. The dollar has recovered from earlier weakness after the Fed made only very modest changes in its monetary policy at the latest OMC meeting, and is ending the period basically unchanged; sterling has weakened slightly against the dollar but is higher against the euro; and the euro has also fallen back against most other currencies as the fears about sovereign debt defaults in Europe have increased.

But the feature of the currency markets over the month has been the sharp appreciation of the yen because of its enhanced “safe haven” status. The move is obviously an unwelcome development for the Japanese authorities, and there has been considerable speculation about intervention by the Bank of Japan to reverse it; but there has been no action so far.

Short-Term Rates: There have been no changes in short-term rates in the major financial centres this month. Commodity markets have followed the trend in the other markets, improving in the early part of the period, but falling back towards month-end. The main features have been the continued strength of wheat prices after the Russian decision to suspend wheat and grain exports, and the sharp fall in oil prices.

Fisher Capital Management Korea is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world. As a full service company Fisher Capital Management Korea provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2

Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s

(DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio

Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered

away a chest brimming with political capital.

Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for

two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions

of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa

Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s

provision of some ¥1.26 billion to him over years.

Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2: Instead of deregulation and lower corporate taxes, he envisions

increased employment and consumption through focused

government spending in nursing, medicine and other social welfare

fields. But some economists expressed doubts; they say there is no

guarantee that the positive effect of government spending can

steadily outpace the negative effects of tax hikes.

Kan seems to be open to the idea of raising Japan’s consumption

tax from its current level of 5%, though the approach of the upperhouse

election on July and concerns over a political backlash suggest

caution will be the government’s modus operandi.

“Any rise in the consumption tax rate must be offset by lower levies

on daily goods as well as refunds for low-income households”, he

recently said. But he also hopes to reduce corporate taxes from the

current 40% rate to around 25%, in line with other major countries.

In the foreign exchange market, Kan has earned a reputation as a

weak-yen advocate. “The business community says that a yen in

the mid-90s against the dollar is appropriate, so it would be better

if it weakens a bit further”, he said in January, shortly after becoming

finance minister.

Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2: Market observers believe that Kan still supports a weaker yen and

that the Japanese currency could depreciate against the US dollar.

Regarding monetary policy, Kan is generally considered an advocate

of inflation-targeting and quantitative easing. As finance minister,

he has put some political pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to

fight deflation more aggressively, he nudged the BOJ to double a

special bank lending program introduced in December. The bond

market believes Kan is a wise choice to manage the sustainability

of Japan’s government debt.

The DPJ had promised to unveil a long-term plan to improve public

finances. However, “postponement is likely because of the current

political churn, and any real ‘meat’ in the plan will probably not

be disclosed until after the Upper House election” … says Flemming

Nielsen, senior analyst at Danske research.

Kan is a self-made man, ascending into politics after years toiling

in citizen movements and he has a reputation as a quick learner

and a pragmatic politician, with sharp elbows and an aversion to

any criticism.

The country he now leads is facing dire long-term problems that

beg for strong leadership, including a staggering level of public

debt, a stagnant economy, and an ageing population. He has a few

weeks to fix the impression left by nine months of incompetent DPJ

governance.

If he fails, the party will be routed in the elections for the Diet’s

upper house.

Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part2

Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part 2 - Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.

The European Central Bank appears to share this view, although it has warned that the recovery “is likely to remain uneven”, and has kept short-term rates at very low levels. The bond markets have therefore continued to receive considerable support from the economic background and the actions of the central bank.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: However, these factors have been much less important than the fears about the debt problems in Greece and in other weaker members of the euro-zone. After considerable

prevarication, due primarily to strong German opposition to a bail-out; an agreement

has been reached amongst the member countries that, in conjunction with the IMF,

they will provide support for Greece if this becomes necessary to prevent a default

on its sovereign debts.

But the details of the agreement are very vague, and there is certainly no guarantee

that the country can carry out its promises to introduce significant reductions in

spending levels to reduce the size of its debts. The agreement has helped the country

to issue a further ¤5 billion bond; but it was forced to offer an interest rate of 5.9%

on a seven-year bond, 325 basis points above the equivalent German bund, and

that issue has subsequently moved to a substantial discount. Conditions have also

been made worse by the downgrade in Portugal’s credit rating, and so the pressures

on the bond markets are continuing.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with the latest weakness in the

bond market, an inadequate response in the latest Budget to the debt problems in

the UK, and a warning from the Fitch rating agency that the government’s timetable

for reducing the fiscal deficit was “frankly too slow”, and that the country’s

credit rating was at risk. The economic recovery remains very slow, and the Bank

of England is holding short-term interest rates close to zero, so the market is

receiving some support; but in all the circumstances it is perhaps surprising that

it has managed to perform so well.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The economic background in the UK remains depressed, but is slowly improving.

Retail sales bounced back strongly; the public sector continued its recruitment

programmed; and there has been a pickup in activity in both the manufacturing and

service sectors of the economy.

It was not surprising therefore that the Bank of England kept short-term interest

rates unchanged at the latest meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee and even

suggested that it would be prepared to reactivate its quantitative easing programmed

if this proved to be necessary. But this may not be enough to sustain gilt edged

prices at current levels.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The latest Budget statement is forecasting a slightly lower fiscal deficit of £167 billion in the 2009/10 fiscal year, and a halving of the deficit by 2013/14; but there

is considerable skepticism in the markets about the growth assumptions underlying

the figures, and about the willingness of the politicians to address the real problems

involved in reducing the deficit. If there is no credible plan to achieve this reduction,

the country may well lose its AAA credit rating. Prospects have therefore become

even more uncertain, and a move to higher yield levels seems unavoidable.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: The Japanese bond market is slightly weaker over the past month. It is likely that this year, for the first time, bond issuance may provide greater support for the fiscal

deficit than tax revenues. This has already led to a downgrade on Japanese public

debt by Standard and Poor’s, and with new bond issuance this year estimated to

reach ¥44,300 billion, and to reach ¥55,300 billion by 2013, further downgrades

seem likely. Japanese institutional investors are used to financing massive deficits,

but it seems unlikely that deficits of this size can be adequately financed at present

yield levels. Prospects for the Japanese market therefore remain unattractive.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5.5%

this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0.2%

for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8.75% a year. This was expected as the presidential

election is nearing. The rate fell from 13.75% to 8.75% between December 2008

and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to

curb inflation.

Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe.

Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone of contention for the two countries. The US was accused of excessive cotton subsidies by Brazil. After eight years of litigation at the World Trade Organization Brazil has won the case and Brazil’s move to raise tariffs on

a wide range of American goods has a potential of starting a new front in the trade

war with the US over cotton subsidies. Overall, the issue is still not blown out of

proportion as the two countries are engaged on other fronts.

Fisher Capital Management Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Investment - Brazil’s government announced a R$958.9bn programme of investments in infrastructure for 2011 to 2014. The program is known as the PAC 2 … the

Portuguese acronym for accelerated growth programme, part two … to increase

Brazil’s investment rate and its potential for economic growth during the period

of the next government, which begins on January 1 2011.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Investment News: Henrique Meirelles who provided monetary stability to Brazil is all set to stand for election either as a Vice President or a senator. President Lula may choose him to

run for the Vice President office to send a message that macroeconomic stability

will be maintained under Ms Rousseff, presidential nominee of Mr. Lula’s party in the October election.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Let us keep you informed of all the latest news and developments with our free monthly newsletter of analysis and recommendations.

Join our mailing list to recieved our free monthly Fisher Capital newsletter, with analysis of the latest financial and investment news and developmetns, plus of course our current research findings and recommendations.

Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul

Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month, and there have been further falls in some of the minor markets, especially in the euro-zone, because of continuing fears about sovereign debt defaults. The agreement reached by the member countries of the euro-zone to combine with the

IMF to provide any necessary support to enable Greece to refinance its maturing debts and avoid a default has had a poor response in the markets; but at least Greece has been able to make further bond issues; and the gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with a disappointing Budget statement that has left any real attempt to resolve the serious UK debt problems until after the general election. But the sudden weakness in the world bond markets after a series of disappointing auctions has once again increased the tensions.

Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The global economic recovery is developing slowly, and so short-term interest rates

are likely to remain at low levels for a considerable period. It is also possible that

the “fudged” agreement amongst member countries of the euro-zone will provide

an opportunity for the introduction of the necessary austerity measures; and that

a new government will finally begin to address the debt problems in the UK. But

the risks in the situation are still increasing, sovereign debt defaults may still occur,

and the single currency system in the euro-zone may not be sustainable in its present

form. Higher bond yields therefore appear unavoidable; prospects for all the bond

markets are unattractive.

Developments in the bond market over the past month have clearly illustrated the

need for caution. The US economy continues to recover. The Fed has left shortterm

interest rates unchanged, and has indicated that they will remain “at exceptionally

low levels for an extended period”. This tended to enhance the “safe haven” status

of the US equity market for most of the past month, as conditions continued to

deteriorate in other bond markets.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - Most of the available evidence supports the view that the economic recovery is

continuing, but only at a slow pace. The unemployment rate remains close to 10%,

and the housing sector is still depressed, with both new housing starts and sales of

existing homes weakened still further by adverse weather conditions. However

retail sales are holding up fairly well, and manufacturers are beginning to increase

capital expenditures and inventories, and so there is a general expectation that

growth in the first quarter will be around a 2% annualized rate.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The Fed has confirmed that its buying programmed for mortgage-backed securities

has ended, and that it may be moving slowly towards re-selling some of these

securities; but it seems to be in no hurry, and so both the economic background,

and the position of the central bank, remain broadly supportive.

The situation facing investors in the mainland European bond markets is more

serious. The economic background is improving, with the weaker euro providing

considerable support in export markets, and so the area continues to move out of

recession. But progress is slow, and so the European Central Bank is maintaining

very low short-term interest rates, and providing support. However the massive

fiscal deficits are threatening to overwhelm the bond markets and to lead to sovereign

debt defaults, and so investors have continued to switch from the bonds of the

weaker countries into those of the stronger countries, and have widened the yield

spreads across the markets. The latest Greek bond auctions have received only a

very moderate response, and there is considerable uncertainty whether even the

markets of the stronger countries are adequately discounting the risks in the situation.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The available evidence on the performance of the euro-zone economy is mixed,

but slightly more encouraging. The weakness in domestic demand is continuing,

and retail sales volumes are disappointing in most member countries; but the

manufacturing sector, especially in Germany, is much more buoyant, with exports

providing most of the momentum. The latest Ifo index of business sentiment in

Germany is sharply higher, and other countries are also sharing in the improvement.

Analysts are therefore forecasting growth around the 0.5% level in the first quarter

of the year.

New Commercial Boilers Presented - Triad Boiler Room Systems by Fisher Capital

Fisher Capital on Boiler Room Equipment, Inc: Triad Boiler Systems creates distinctively tough small-footprint hot water boilers, steam boilers, and radiant heating systems.

All of our boilers use 12 gauge firetubes in compact vessels that suit through very small doorways! Inputs range up to 2,000,000 BTU's. Create a highly efficient system with millions of BTU's by sequencing a string of these modular vessels.

TRIAD's commercial boilers and industrial grade Hot Water Heating, Domestic Hot Water, and Steam boilers are used in a wide variety of applications. Our commercial boilers are used at schools, universities, apartments, hospitals, office buildings, retirement communities, and churches. Industrial uses have included bakeries, smelting operations, food processing, quenching systems, and various heating applications for manufacturing. Triads’ modular boilers and radiant heating systems can be natural gas fired, oil fired, or dual fuel fired. For simplicity of operation and maintenance, all controls on our boilers are well known, off-the-shelf products. There area no proprietary parts on these boilers! This simplicity of operation is part of our philosophy, and an important reason why our customers return to us again and again.

TRIAD has been manufacturing high-quality boilers since 1926, and developed the modular boiler concept with primary/secondary piping, receiving a patent for it in 1967. We put this experience, knowledge, and expertise into every boiler.

We believe in quality - it is the overriding characteristic driving our company. This is why we manufacture extremely rugged, well-designed hot water and steam boilers that can provide decades of dependable service. We welcome your inquiries.

Benefits of Modularity

TRIAD's elegantly simple design maintains consistent water volume where heat is required.

•             Boilers are activated sequentially, drawing water from the main loop into the next hot water boiler until the heating need is meet.

•             firing boilers remaining isolated, so no heated water circulates through cold boilers.

•             During most of the year the unfired boilers provide additional backup.

•             Outdoor temperatures and loop water temperatures are constantly monitored.

Fisher Capital on Boiler Room Equipment, Inc: The efficiency of this design is most apparent during warmer months, when a conventional hydronic heating or steam boiler could still be operating at full capacity.

Primary-Secondary Piping - TRIAD integrates modularity with a single pipe primary-secondary system. TRIAD was the first company to employ a Primary-Secondary concept. It operates with two loops, (i) the primary loop, or building main loop, and (ii) smaller secondary loops off of each hot water boiler, which supply heated water to the primary loop.

Upon a call for heat, the boiler pump begins pushing the return water into the boiler and out through the secondary loop, supplying this hot water up into the primary loop (the main header), where it mixes with the cooler return water from the main loop of the building.

•             Supply and return water are blended, avoiding the need for expensive and unreliable mixing valves commonly used in two pipe systems.

•             The secondary loop isolates each hot water boiler, resulting in a very efficient system that minimizes thermal shock.

Control Panel

TRIAD Boilers can be sequenced by the use of our control panel that provides many attractive features:

•             Temperature set-back when less heat is required, such as nights and weekends.

•             Adjustments for latent heat, to take advantage of hot boiler water that retains heat after the burner shuts down.

•             Outdoor reset based on atmospheric temperatures.

•             Monitoring of return water temperatures to maintain accurate heating output.

It is also very easy to sequence our boilers using the panel of any other major manufacturer.

Packaged Product - Fisher Capital on Boiler Room Equipment, Inc: All TRIAD hot water boilers and steam boilers are fully assembled, packaged products, which offer several advantages over boilers that must be assembled at the jobsite

•             Onsite labor costs are minimized.

•             Quality control is higher at the factory than at the jobsite

•             The ease of installation of a packaged boiler allows for quicker start up.

Benefits of Steel Boilers

Easy to Clean - To maintain boiler efficiency, heating surfaces must be kept clean and free of combustion by-products. All TRIAD heating surfaces, especially the firetubes, are easy to access. It is impossible to clean all the heating surfaces of a cast iron boiler, and what can be reached is difficult to clean.

TRIAD also makes it easy to maintain clean water surfaces. The cleaning of the interior of a cast iron boiler is a major undertaking, and even then only the vertical surfaces can be cleaned. The inability to clean the horizontal surfaces can have a significant impact on operating efficiency.

Easy to Repair - Because of their steel construction, TRIAD hot water and steam boilers can be repaired in the field with minimal disruption. A leak can be permanently welded or the tubes re-rolled with little difficulty. It is impossible to permanently weld a cracked cast iron boiler section or a leaking copper fin-tube boiler. The firetubes are easily accessed through the top and through the firedoor.

Fast Water Circulation - Poor circulation of water within the typical cast iron boiler is very common due to their design limits, while TRIAD's steel hot water boilers provide for faster circulation.